Economic Outλook

A weekly status update and prediction of the future.

In the beginning this will be quite brief, maybe bad and probably straight out factually wrong.
The point is for me to just get started and to improve over time.

For the past few weeks I have been really buisy with school and with lambdacism, so this has been down prioritized. However I think this Economic outλook will pick up again around week 10 Stay tuned!

2025


Week 5

World Status

As seen in figure 1, the global deaths and the countries of where there has been war, has changed a lot from 2003 to 2023. [1]
Democracy Index 2022 map

Figure 1



2024


Week 52

World Status

After the election of Trump, the tariffs he might impose and the potential trade war is sure to create a deadweight loss for both parties. Another disadvantage of fueling a trade war is that tariffs are much easier to create than to remove. President Xi Jinping has said that China will take a stronger hold of Taiwan; it is only a matter of time.[1]

World Prediction

According to the OECD, global GDP will rise by about 3.3% in 2025, but uncertainty remains high, and the future of the global economy looks a little shaky. [2] Another factor contributing to global brittleness is the high amount of national debt among many countries.


Sources:
[1] Xi Jinping states China will take a stronger hold of Taiwan.
[2] OECD predicts global GDP will rise by 3.3% in 2025 despite high uncertainty.



Week 51

World Status

The US currently has the highest total GDP ($29 trillion) followed by China (18) and Germany (4). Donald J. Trump is the world's most powerful world leader. The rate of human pollution is still much higher than what is necessary for benefiting humanity in the medium and long term. However, carbon-cutting initiatives are on the rise although they often don't meet the promised target nor the amount necessary (although what is necessary is subjective, of course).

The total share of democracies in the world peaked in 2010 at around 50% of the world's countries and seems to have been declining slightly from 2017 until now. [1]

Democracy Index 2022 map
Democracy Index 2022: A global perspective on democratic governance. Image from Wikimedia Commons

World Prediction

The Gulf Stream will, with a very high certainty, stop flowing within the next 10-15 years. This will cause the average yearly temperature of the northern European coastal countries to be considerably lower (from around 5-10 degrees Celsius). [2]

Intel will almost go down under, causing non-Asian chip production to become critically low as there are only three main producers: TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. This is only the tip of the iceberg for the US, however, as it will soon be slung into a great economic downfall. With Trump's aggressive/chaotic macroeconomic policy, there is a higher probability that it will happen sooner rather than later.[3] The West will feel a strong incentive to invest in a new semiconductor fab as China takes military control of TSMC and Taiwan (a disputed country) in general. It is noteworthy to mention here, however, that TSMC relies heavily on machines from ASML, a Dutch company.


Sources:
[1] Global democracies peaked in 2010, declining slightly since 2017.
[2] Gulf Stream likely to stop within 10-15 years, cooling Europe.
[3] Intel's decline may threaten non-Asian chip production; geopolitical risks loom.
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